虞和芳談天說地: 價和值的區別虞和芳 10.5.18.

2018年5月10日星期四

價和值的區別虞和芳 10.5.18.

價和值的區別 虞和芳 10.5.18.

價和值的區別相當的大，這在自由經濟市場是一個很有趣的現象觀察。

即使在中國古代早就認出了價和值之間的區別。如中國的魚和熊掌故事，英文翻譯為

"when you can't get both the bear paw and fish at the same time, you got to pick the best”.

這是兩個都想要，但是不能夠兩樣兼得，只能夠挑選一個對自己認為最為有價值的一個。

在挑選結婚對象時，也會遇到的情況。

在購物時，更是時常接觸，人們希望購買到物美價廉的東西。

在以固定的錢內，挑選認為對自己最有價值和意義的一項。有時不得不割愛的選擇，看出錢的萬能作用。

在加入人為和喜好的情況下，可以看出價和值對不同人選擇的區別。

這就在選擇下，每人的愛好和需要不同，以及自己的經濟允許，產生價和值的不同出來。

物以稀為貴，也說出價值是以稀少為貴。

但是這也不一定稀少就貴，還要看在什麼地方。譬如說貂皮大衣，在熱帶地區，一無用處，在夏天也用不著，所以在冬天價格才會對需要的人，才有價值，這是邊際效用。

待價而沽，也是這層意思。

這是在自由貿易市場作為決定很重要的一項。錢是換取萬物的媒介工具，才會出現“人為財死，鳥為食亡”的成語。

價和值在某個方面很難判斷，如股票市場，房地產的價格。裡面就大有文章。

在2008年的Lehman Brothers銀行 Bankrupt雷曼兄弟破產事件，是因為2008年9月15日，令其發行的信貸掛鉤票據（Credit-linked note）（香港稱為迷你債券，台灣稱為連動債）價值暴跌，因而在台灣、香港等地引致投資者不滿的事件。在香港，雷曼兄弟擔保的迷你債券總價值約127億港元。它的價值暴跌，引起世界的股票大跌，經濟受到危脅。

請見文後的Wikipedia列表

——

每次一種股票大跌，都對市場貿易產生極大的影響。

每次發生都有它的特殊原因，影響世界的金融。

大家都能夠看到的每日生活購物，每人都有一個數，一公斤的米、一公斤的麵粉價格，不會一公斤30元台幣的米，去付300元來購買。

拿食品的香蕉來說，當它大批收割時，運到漢堡，那裏就有一箱箱的大賣場，價格便宜得很，可是到零售商就貴多了，這是自由貿易的競爭。在馬爾他，當大漁船進港，一大堆的零售商等待購買，有位中國學生，說他只要也跟著批發商，清晨五點，到漁船返回時去買，便宜的很，一大簍筐，有好幾公斤，只要一個Lire，（2個歐元左右），而到飯館叫魚，叫海鮮的話，貴得很，比肉貴多了。每一盤魚／海鮮，要在15歐元以上。

台灣也是如此，海鮮來得特別的貴。可是對不喜歡吃海鮮的人，一點價值都沒有。有一位馬爾他的神父，請他客時，問他什麼菜不吃，他回答，不要海鮮。因為他得到教徒的請客，都是海鮮，他就吃多了，再也不肯吃海鮮。那麼魚對他沒有一點價值。

有位台灣同學說，他家鄉靠海，產魚子，魚子都是亂丟，沒有人要它。

可是魚子拿到別處，卻是貴重異常。這就是商人的利潤，以低廉價格購入，賺取經手到達顧客手中所得到的款項。

這是價與值的一些分野。看需求來訂，看市場的待價而沽。

但是正是因為如此，在股票在房地產上，時常難以決定，它的價和值的區別。

有些有價無值。如一些畫，沒人問津，畫家在熱鬧的地方擺攤，賣畫，或是給人作畫。一天賺不了多少錢。

Vincent Willem van Gogh 梵谷（1853年3月30日－1890年7月29日）在他生時，只賣出一張畫，那是梵谷生前出售的畫作《紅色葡萄園》也是由他的弟弟拜託友人購得。

但他的畫，在一百年後，1990年5月，日本收藏家SaitōRyōei在 Christie’s 佳士得拍賣行，以8,200萬美元購得van Gogh 的Porträt des Dr. Gachet。此畫是在他自殺前畫的。

同樣的是一張畫，為什麼，當時他賣不出去，而在100年後，居然以那麼高的價格，有人有這筆錢，而肯出高價來購買。

有人會說，這是此一時，彼一時也！

對於股票市場，因為幾乎每個人都能夠買到，它成為大眾商品，大眾購買Fond，不少Fond從中炒作操作，尤其在2009年後，西方國家，為了經濟的危機，和債務的倍增，遞減利息，目前變成負的利息，不少存錢的人，不甘心沒有利息，就往股票上投資。它就失去了價和值判斷，才會在21世紀中，有6次不同的股票泡沫，和股票危機（見中文維基列表，英文多一倍）。

這也看出不少人們對價值觀的逐漸失去判斷力，只顧到眼前的利益，希望在短期內，股票上漲，可以出手賺大錢，而失去股票的原始意義，是一種商業的投資，股票代表是加入某個公司，成為其中一個所有者，也許只有萬分之一的股份。

這種對價值失去判斷力，在自由市場的今日，時常就會有錯算，而多半是“賠了夫人又折兵”，或說“偷雞不得蝕把米。

若是連辛苦賺的錢，備老年來用，那真是太不划算了。

List of stock market crashes and bear markets，從1929年10月24日算起

Wall Street Crash of 1929	24 Oct 1929		Lasting over 4 years, the bursting of the speculative bubble in shares led to further selling as people who had borrowed money to buy shares had to cash them in, when their loans were called in. Also called the Great Crash or the Wall Street Crash, leading to the Great Depression.
Recession of 1937–38	1937		Lasting around a year, this share price fall was triggered by an economic recession within the Great Depression and doubts about the effectiveness of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal policy.
Kennedy Slide of 1962	28 May 1962		Also known as the 'Flash Crash of 1962'	^[7]
Brazilian Markets Crash of 1971	July 1971		Lasting through the 1970s and early-1980s, this was the end of a boom that started in 1969, compounded by the 1970s energy crisis coupled with early 1980s Latin American debt crisis.	^[8]^[9]^[10]
1973–74 stock market crash	Jan 1973		Lasting 23 months, dramatic rise in oil prices, the miners' strike and the downfall of the Heath government.
Souk Al-Manakh stock market crash	Aug 1982
Black Monday	19 Oct 1987
Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange Crash	June 1989		Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange Crash, due to its weak internal controls and absence of credit discipline, that led to its collapse, and of which it never recovered	^[11]^[12]^[13]
Friday the 13th mini-crash	13 Oct 1989		Failed leveraged buyout of United Airlines causes crash
Early 1990s recession	July 1990		Iraq invaded Kuwait in July 1990, causing oil prices to increase. The Dow dropped 18% in three months, from 2,911.63 on July 3 to 2,381.99 on October 16,1990. This recession lasted approximately 8 months.
Japanese asset price bubble	1991		Lasting approximately twenty years, through at least the end of 2011, share and property price bubble bursts and turns into a long deflationary recession. Some of the key economic events during the collapse of the Japanese asset price bubble include the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Dot-com bubble. In addition, more recent economic events, such as the late-2000s financial crisis and August 2011 stock markets fall have prolonged this period.
Black Wednesday	16 Sep 1992		The Conservative government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after they were unable to keep sterling above its agreed lower limit.
1997 Asian financial crisis	2 July 1997		Investors deserted emerging Asian shares, including an overheated Hong Kong stock market. Crashes occur in Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, and elsewhere, reaching a climax in the October 27, 1997 mini-crash.
October 27, 1997, mini-crash	27 Oct 1997		Global stock market crash that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia.
1998 Russian financial crisis	17 Aug 1998		The Russian government devalues the ruble, defaults on domestic debt, and declares a moratorium on payment to foreign creditors.
Dot-com bubble	10 March 2000		Collapse of a technology bubble.
Economic effects arising from the September 11 attacks	11 Sep 2001		The September 11 attacks caused global stock markets to drop sharply. The attacks themselves caused approximately $40 billion in insurance losses, making it one of the largest insured events ever. See world economic effects arising from the September 11 attacks.
Stock market downturn of 2002	9 Oct 2002		Downturn in stock prices during 2002 in stock exchanges across the United States, Canada, Asia, and Europe. After recovering from lows reached following the September 11 attacks, indices slid steadily starting in March 2002, with dramatic declines in July and September leading to lows last reached in 1997 and 1998. See stock market downturn of 2002.
Chinese stock bubble of 2007	27 Feb 2007		The SSE Composite Index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange tumbles 9% from unexpected selloffs, the largest drop in 10 years, triggering major drops in worldwide stock markets.	^[14]^[15]^[16]
United States bear market of 2007–09	11 Oct 2007		Till June 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 all experienced declines of greater than 20% from their peaks in late 2007.	^[17]^[18]
Financial crisis of 2007–08	16 Sep 2008		On September 16, 2008, failures of large financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure of securities of packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolved into a global crisis resulting in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of equities (stock) and commodities worldwide. The failure of banks in Iceland resulted in a devaluation of the Icelandic króna and threatened the government with bankruptcy. Iceland was able to secure an emergency loan from the IMF in November. Later on, U.S. President George W. Bush signs the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act into law, creating a Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to purchase failing bank assets. Had disastrous effects on the world economy along with world trade.	^[19]^[20]
2009 Dubai debt standstill	27 Nov 2009		Dubai requests a debt deferment following its massive renovation and development projects, as well as the Great Recession. The announcement causes global stock markets to drop.	^[21]
European sovereign debt crisis	27 April 2010		Standard & Poor's downgrades Greece's sovereign credit rating to junk four days after the activation of a €45-billion EU–IMF bailout, triggering the decline of stock markets worldwide and of the Euro's value, and furthering a European sovereign debt crisis.	^[22]^[23]^[24]
2010 Flash Crash	6 May 2010		The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffers its worst intra-day point loss, dropping nearly 1,000 points before partially recovering.	^[25]
August 2011 stock markets fall	1 Aug 2011	S&P 500 entered a short-lived bear market between 02nd May 2011 (intraday high: 1,370.58) and 04th October 2011 (intraday low: 1,074.77), a decline of 21.58%. The stock market rebounded thereafter and ended the year flat.
2015–16 Chinese stock market crash	12 June 2015		China stock market crash starts in June and continues into July and August. In January 2016, Chinese stock market experiences a steep sell-off which sets off a global rout.	^[26]^[27]^[28]^[29]^[30]
2015–16 stock market selloff	18 August 2015		The Dow Jones fell 588 points during a two-day period, 1,300 points from August 18–21. On Monday, August 24, world stock markets were down substantially, wiping out all gains made in 2015, with interlinked drops in commodities such as oil, which hit a six-year price low, copper, and most of Asian currencies, but the Japanese yen, losing value against the United States dollar. With this plunge, an estimated ten trillion dollars had been wiped off the books on global markets since June 3.